The National Super League (NSL) 2024 season is entering its most dramatic and nerve-wracking phase yet, with the relegation battle intensifying at the bottom of the table. With only a few matches remaining, three teams—Migori Youth, Mombasa Stars, and SS Assad FC—are locked in a fierce struggle to avoid the dreaded drop to Division One.
Two of these three teams will be relegated, meaning only one will survive. As things stand:
- Migori Youth sit 16th with 29 points
- Mombasa Stars are 17th, also with 29 points but with an inferior goal difference
- SS Assad FC are bottom (18th) with 22 points
Let’s take a closer look at how each team can stay alive.
SS Assad FC’s Battle for Survival: The Road to Avoiding Relegation
- Current Position: 18th
- Points: 22
- Matches Left: 4
- 🟦 Home vs Mombasa Stars
- 🟥 Away vs Nairobi United
- 🟦 Home vs Migori Youth
- 🟥 Away vs APS Bomet
What They Need:
Assad FC must win at least 3 out of 4 matches to reach 31 points—which could be enough, depending on how Migori and Mombasa perform.
Key Fixtures:
- The home match vs Mombasa Stars is a direct six-pointer. A win would drag Mombasa back and boost Assad’s chances significantly.
- Beating Migori Youth at home would also be a crucial blow to a fellow struggler.
Ideal Scenario for Survival:
- Win vs Mombasa Stars
- Win vs Migori Youth
- At least a draw vs APS Bomet or Nairobi United
That would put Assad at 32 points. If either Mombasa or Migori fail to hit 32 points, SS Assad FC survives.
Bottom Line:
Assad must treat every game like a final and aim for at least three wins. Six-pointers against Mombasa and Migori will determine their fate.
How Mombasa Stars Can Survive Relegation
- Current Position: 17th
- Points: 29
- Matches Remaining: 3
- 🟥 Away vs SS Assad FC
- 🟦 Home vs MCF
- 🟦 Home vs Samwest Blackboots
What They Need:
Just 1 win and 1 draw (34 points) could be enough, especially if Migori loses more than once or Assad fails to hit 31.
Key Fixtures:
- The showdown away to SS Assad is huge. A win would effectively end Assad’s hopes while boosting Stars’ chances.
- Home ties against MCF and Samwest Blackboots offer a realistic path to safety.
Ideal Scenario for Survival:
- Beat SS Assad FC
- Draw vs MCF
- Draw or win vs Samwest Blackboots
That takes Mombasa Stars to 33–35 points, which should be enough regardless of what Migori does.
Bottom Line:
Mombasa Stars are in the best position. Two home matches and a direct rival in Assad—survival is in their hands.
How Migori Youth Can Survive Relegation
- Current Position: 16th
- Points: 29
- Matches Remaining: 4
- 🟥 Away vs Samwest Blackboots
- 🟦 Home vs Luanda Villa
- 🟥 Away vs SS Assad FC
- 🟦 Home vs Nzoia Sugar
What They Need:
Migori must collect at least 4 points to hit 33, assuming the other teams don’t all win their remaining matches.
Key Fixtures:
- The trip to SS Assad FC is a make-or-break. A win would bury Assad and help Migori climb to safety.
- A win at home vs Luanda Villa or Nzoia Sugar could make the difference.
Ideal Scenario for Survival:
- Win vs Luanda Villa
- Draw vs Samwest or Nzoia
- Avoid defeat vs SS Assad
That puts Migori at 33–34 points, likely enough to survive unless Mombasa Stars pick up maximum points.
Bottom Line:
Migori Youth must grab points in at least two matches. Their fate may depend on results elsewhere, but a win against Luanda Villa or SS Assad is crucial.
Final Verdict: Who Will Survive?
With matches involving direct relegation rivals, anything can happen. Here’s a quick comparison:
| Team | Max Points Possible | Key Matches | Survival Chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Migori Youth | 41 | vs Assad, Luanda | 50-50 |
| Mombasa Stars | 38 | vs Assad, Samwest | Strong |
| SS Assad FC | 34 | vs Migori, Mombasa | Risky |
The battle will likely go down to the final matchday. One thing is clear: each team must fight for every point as the NSL season draws to a thrilling close.
For Assad to survive God must ingilia kati